Since Syria chemical incident, there have been many
theories. While we don't know exactly what's true, I believe the reason behind
it is not only 1 but several. Below, I briefly add few more possibilities to the
pot:
1- We all have noticed Israel harsh reaction, since Rohani's
election. She seems to be sleepless, fearing some kind of deals between
Washington (+ others) & Tehran. On the other hand, Iran has never been shy
to express his strong support for Syria - not just recently but for many years.
In other words, any attack on Syria, can be interpreted as an attack on Iran
(at least, from Iran's regime point of view), & that will sour any possible
sweet talk between US (+ the rest of the west) & Iran. Since all Israel
efforts to twist US arms to attack Iran has been failed so far, Israel is using
Syria:
a)
in the short term: to stop any deal or normalization of
relation between west & Iran.
b)
in the medium term: open gate for military conflict between US
(&possibly west) & Iran by pooling the foot of both US & Iran into
Syria.
c)
in the long term: since that will pull some other ME feet in
this war game (Saudi, Turkey, etc.), at very least, it'd be very fruitful for
Israel by weakening & destabilizing all these ME countries from military,
economy, political, internal, & other point of views (like Iraq & Iran
war).
2- President Obama, VP Biden & others in US have
expressed to Israel, even publicly & openly, many times, that their
"military option on table" is not a bluff, & on the other hand,
Israel has expressed its concern & doubt. In this Syria matter, Israel is
testing Obama. It's like a tiny quiz before the final test. And Mr. Obama, with
that politically unwise & naïve statement he made while ago (attack if
chemical line is crossed by Assad), is stuck in something that can't neither
change the gear forward nor reverse. After all, his, his administration, &
US face is on stake here. And Israel knows that very well. In other word,
Israel has put him in the corner. Let's not forget, next year (2014) is US
congressional election. Is it really Obama, who's putting pressure on Congress
about Syria, or it's other way?!
3- Marginalizing Palestine negotiation. Israel &
Palestine negotiation restarted just recently with so much Kerry's air mileage
points & hope but no one talks about it these days. It moved to the
sideline. Especially with recent killing of 3 Palestinians & continuation
of building construction, the negotiation power has weakened. Is this all part
of tricks that Israel has been playing for many years: always, something more
important happens!?
4- Marginalizing Egypt coup: Situation in Egypt is much
worse than what they talk about & what they calculated & expected (by
those behind the coup). But no more news coverage.
5- Same thing for Libya coup. Maybe during the shipment of
"democracy" vehicle there, some parts got missed from the containers!
6- Same thing for Iraq's failure & everyday bombings
& killings of innocent people.
7- Same thing for everyday failures in Afghanistan.
8- Maybe it's done by some Arab counties (Saudi, Qatar,
etc.) with/without Turkey &/or Israel to pull feet of some big cats into
the game to finish Assad sooner because it's been taking much more time & $
than what they originally thought & calculated.
Some other possibilities:
9- Maybe it's done by Iran:
a)
to open a new war front for US, while it's ending
Afghanistan's front, to further engaging it, to not to attack Iran. After all,
Afghanistan & Iraq wars discourage US to open a new front by attacking
Iran.
b)
to silence Iranians complains for its economical problems by
engaging in a war (like during Iraq war).
c)
to test US & west.
10- Maybe it's done by Russia:
a)
to open a new war front for US, while it's ending
Afghanistan's front, to further weaken her economic & global image - like
what US did to Soviet Union during cold war race & Soviet 8 years war in
Afghanistan. As US goes further under deep debt, its ability to respond to even
real threat in future will diminish. This puts US in a dangerous position.
b)
to cut some deals with US & west: I give OK in UN Security
Council about Syria, & in return, you give me…
11- Maybe it's done by Assad:
a)
To unify public behind one front against foreign attack on
country: USA & Israel, which are not very popular deep in the heart of
Syrian people or the rest of ME people. Even Saudi, Qatar, or Iran are not very
popular there either. If opposition sleeps with them these days, is because of
guns & money, which they can't continue without them. Now, in case of
foreign war, anyone joins the other side (any opposition), is going to
immediately be considered by public (& of course, Assad's media) as
traitor.
b)
After 2 years of internal conflict, Syrian people (even those
who are not fighting, even Assad's supporters) are getting very tired. Any
complain about any shortage (food, gas, etc.), will be justified by regime for
the same reason: foreign war (like during Iraq & Iran war).
